Only a few short years ago, New Zealand was in the grip of a housing crisis. The headlines screamed about supply shortages, record prices were locking out first-home buyers, and rents were through the roof. Political parties blamed each other for decades of under-investment in housing.
Fast forward to 2025, and we’re facing the opposite problem. We now have more homes than people willing to buy or rent them. So how did we end up here?
The World Got Small
You know the world’s got small when people start talking about space tourism. As travel became cheaper and global opportunities expanded, many Kiwis began exploring life elsewhere. While there’s no exact figure for how many New Zealanders live overseas, the latest estimates put it at over one million, nearly 20% of our entire population.
With countries around the world actively recruiting skilled and educated workers (and we have plenty of those, despite our grumbling), New Zealand risks becoming a large retirement village.
Not Enough Babies
Over the past few decades, New Zealand’s birth rate has slipped below replacement level. If this trend continues, our population is predicted to peak in the 2040s and then begin to decline.
Migration has long propped up our economy, but the recent exodus has turned that lifeline into a concern. Many of those leaving weren’t born here. They came, settled, and have now used the easy trans-Tasman pathway to move across the ditch.
To sustain house-price growth, we need population growth. If we can’t lift birth rates or attract more migrants to stay, we could find ourselves facing a future more like Japan’s with owners deserting their homes leaving ghost towns in their wake.
Economies of Scale
The cost of building has become absurd. Despite advances in technology, build times keep stretching out making development less attractive. Add in falling land values, and every new build risks becoming an over-capitalised project.
When compared with Australia, Canada, and the US, building in New Zealand costs around 38% more, even though ironically, we grow much of the timber used in construction. Until we fix the imbalance in scale and cost, both the building sector and the wider housing market will remain under pressure.
It Became Too Hard
Owning a home isn’t easy, just ask anyone who brought in 2021 and is staring down the barrel of losses in there hundreds of thousands. Add to that rising insurance premiums, ever increasing rates and a never-ending list of maintenance, it’s easy to understand why the younger generation don’t have the passion for property New Zealander’s were once known for. While home ownership still holds emotional value, the dream isn’t what it once was.
The Wellington Market
The local market remains unpredictable. Some weeks feel buoyant; others feel flat. The truth is that the market is just doing what markets do, moving in cycles.
At the moment, a surge of new listings hasn’t been matched by buyer demand. Last year, the market came to a grinding halt around late November. This year thanks in large part to an horrific spring, activity looks set to push deeper into December. The balance between listings and buyers will likely determine how the year closes out.
Wellington Market Quick Stats
What’s on in Welly?
The Rocky Horror Show, St James Theatre – 18-29 March 2026
The Rocky Horror Show is the longest continuously running contemporary musical in the world. It has thrilled over 35 million theatregoers, been staged in 30 countries, and translated into 20 languages. Get dressed up, let loose, and be your fabulous self at the biggest glitter-soaked party in town.
High Tide, Waitangi Park – 8 November 2025
High Tide is back and bigger than ever. The genre-bending, multi-stage music festival is heading to Waitangi Park in November. Festival-goers can hear a mix of music from drum & bass, to house, grime, and hip-hop, all among Wellington’s beautiful waterfront.
Professional Darts Corporation ANZ Premier League, TSB Arena – 8 November 2025
It’s a bullseye for lovers of darts. A new Australasian competition will stop off at Wellington’s TSB Arena in November 2025. You’ll be able to watch as darts players aim for glory. The Professional Darts Corporation (PDC) ANZ Premier League acts as a springboard into the 2025/26 World Darts Championship. There are eight positions open to New Zealanders and Australians. The eventual champion heads off to a place in the global competition.
Plant and Edibles Stall, St Lukes Centre Cnr of Wadestown Rd and Pitt St – 15 November 2025 9:30am – 4pm
100’s of plants nurtured by keen gardeners are up for sale. If you’re passing by and in need of some greenery, pop in and grab yourself a great deal.
Contributions of potted plants and goods for the Edibles table are also all very welcome.
Telephone Mary Stevens 021 472 800 if you would like more information or for anything to be picked up.
Meet Ben Stevens & the Team
If you, or anyone you know, could benefit from a considered market assessment by Wellington’s only licensed agent and registered property valuer, please do not hesitate to call. We are always happy to help.
