And just like that, we find ourselves at the end of another year. For many, this time comes with a hopeful sense that next year will be better, as if a short shutdown in December can miraculously heal an entire economy. So, what have we learned in 2025?
Rate Cuts
All year the conversation centred on rate cuts and the expectation that they would reignite the market, just as we saw during the COVID boom. But for Wellington, and many regions across the country, the five OCR cuts or 1.5% reduction in the OCR, have done little to lift prices. In fact, official data out of the REINZ shows that Wellington is down almost 4% from this time last year. Something we certainly didn’t see coming.
What the cuts have done is ease the pressure for homeowners, especially those who bought at peak prices on low rates. Around 70% of mortgage holders are now fixed on short terms. Once people roll off their current terms, and start to experience more stability in their jobs, those mortgage savings will start flowing elsewhere. Whether that’s into rebuilding savings, enjoying a dinner out, taking a holiday, or upgrading the home, these thoughts have simply been impossible for many of late.
Sinking Ship
Stories of Kiwis boarding flights to “try their luck across the ditch” can feel like a kick in the guts for those of us still here. Many frustrated New Zealanders believe Australia offers a better chance of building the life they want. We’ve been here before. In fact in the early 2000’s New Zealand was losing around 35,000 people a year, mostly to Australia. And yet many return. Why? Because the grass isn’t always greener, and money alone is a temporary fix.
After two trips to Australia this year, I can confirm their challenges mirror ours. I even endured a 50-minute Uber rant on the way to the airport about affordability, cost-of-living pressures and the state of the housing market. Sound familiar?
For job seekers, things have also been tougher, especially in the Capital. Unemployment now seems settled in the early to mid-5% range. Compare this with Australia which currently has an unemployment rate circa 4% and you can see why some view it as a land of opportunity today.
Back to Normal
Anyone paying attention will have noticed the huge volume of houses on the market, in fact we are over one hundred listings higher than this time last year, which was already the highest levels in a decade. With less than three weeks left in the work year, it’s become pretty clear we’ll be heading into 2026 with elevated stock levels and a whole new batch to launch in the new year.
Sentiment has also shifted. In 2022, following the 2021 peak, many vendors withdrew from the market saying they would “wait for the recovery.” Since then, values have fallen a further 10%. Vendors are over it. They’re ready to move on, and the highs of 2021 are no longer even visible in the rear-view mirror.
No Market for Investors
The investment market remains dead, which is unsurprising really. The cost of holding property is high, and with Wellington City Council signalling a further 12% rates increase in the new year (more than triple the rate of inflation), softening rents and stubbornly expensive insurance, the numbers simply don’t stack up. If you’re a tenant looking for accommodation, you’ve never had so much power. Unless the numbers change, it’s hard to see this sector moving in any meaningful way.
Small Wins
If you follow us, you’ll know we’ve been running significantly more auctions this year. As a company we’ve conducted more than 200, and what began as a monthly auction event three years ago has now become a weekly one with up to 15 homes going under the hammer at any given time. Yet some people still insist that Wellington is a “Tender town.” Why? The most common line is that Wellingtonians are conservative and private. To which I reply: we have two Green Party MPs and a Labour MP. Wellington is arguably the most liberal city in New Zealand. If that old fable held any truth, Auckland and Christchurch would be running tenders, not us.
And the stats simply don’t lie. Success rates for Auctions over the last 90 days are over 17% higher than Tenders with the average days to sell 30 vs. 52. Nothing else to say here really!
The Wellington Market
Nothing but positivity. We love you Wellington, and we are lucky to live here. Yes, the period post the pandemic has been a sad time for the city, with housing and employment markets compounding the issues. But you’re still the best little capital in the world.
Have a great holiday, enjoy your family time, and let’s crush 2026. Stay safe.
Wellington Market Quick Stats
What’s on in Welly?
Urzila Carlson — You Don’t Say – 5 December
The trademark cheeky wit is back. South African-Kiwi Urzila Carlson is heading to Wellington with a new show. ‘You Don’t Say’ continues to cement her reputation as an undeniable force in the comedy world
Christmas in the Quarters – 22 November – 13 December 2025
All your favourite Christmas traditions play out across four Saturdays in November and December. The Wellington festive season has a suitably summer flavour with a host of fun activities brought to you by Wellington City Council.
New Zealand Cricket Home International Season – 1 November 2025 – 4 April 2026
It looks like New Zealand Cricket (NZC) has slogged it for six. The 2025-26 international home season of cricket promises over 40 days of action across the country. Wellington has scored five major opportunities to see the BLACKCAPS and WHITE FERNS in action.
Meet Ben Stevens & the Team
If you, or anyone you know, could benefit from a considered market assessment by Wellington’s only licensed agent and registered property valuer, please do not hesitate to call. We are always happy to help.
