Back in January, I mentioned that this year could hinge heavily on global politics, particularly the decisions coming out of the US and the potential flow-on effects. Fast forward a few months and we’re suddenly staring down the barrel of an oil shock, with significant supply disruption and even whispers of “carless days”, a throwback to the 1970s.
The Middle East has always been volatile, and history tells us this won’t be the last time energy markets are shaken. While I don’t remember the 70s first hand, I do remember the petrol spikes around the Gulf War in the early 90s, and again post-9/11. The difference today is how consumers can respond. Back then, options were limited. Now, there are alternatives.
And that brings me to a simple point: the market always finds its level.
EVs, Incentives and Market Correction
We saw this clearly with electric vehicles. The previous government incentivised EV uptake through subsidies, effectively distorting the market by making them artificially cheaper than petrol vehicles. Demand surged but it wasn’t entirely organic. With a change in government came a reset. Subsidies were removed, road user charges introduced, and almost overnight the EV market cooled. Meanwhile, the Ford Ranger remained New Zealand’s top seller. Strip away the incentives, and the market rebalanced itself.
Now, with petrol prices pushing toward $4 a litre, consumer behaviour is shifting again but this time, it’s happening naturally. Buyers are looking for independence and protection from future cost shocks. EVs may now find their place not because they’re subsidised, but because they make sense.
What This Means for Real Estate
So, what does this have to do with real estate? Quite a lot.
If you’ve been in the market for a while, you already know where value sits. Buyers today are highly informed, not just on price, but on what sells, what doesn’t and why. They’ve seen enough homes to instinctively understand where a property fits.
That’s why pricing can be a double-edged sword. Set expectations too early and you risk distorting buyer behaviour. Price too high and you lose engagement. Price too low and you anchor the wrong perception. It’s not dissimilar to subsidies, you’re interfering with the market before it’s had a chance to speak.
If you want to see true market forces at play, look at no-price campaigns such as Auctions, Tenders or Deadline sales. When multiple buyers assess the same opportunity and act at the same time, you get clarity. Not opinion, market evidence.
Changing Buyer Priorities: Energy, Comfort and Independence
Another emerging shift is how buyers are thinking about energy.
For years, good quality heating has been non-negotiable. Buyers don’t want to live in cold homes, and they’re certainly not interested in wearing jackets indoors just to stay warm. That expectation is now well established.
The next layer is independence.
As EV adoption grows and homes rely more on electricity, solar is starting to move from “nice to have” to something more meaningful. It’s no longer a fringe idea it’s becoming a practical consideration. Particularly when people have seen firsthand what happens during power outages and storms.
It’s still early, but the direction is clear. Buyers are starting to think not just about comfort, but resilience.
And just like with EVs, that shift won’t be driven by policy it will be driven by the market.
The Wellington Market
It pains me to say it, but the recovery many expected in the Wellington market hasn’t arrived, at least not yet. Stock levels remain high, and buyers continue to enjoy time, choice and negotiating power.
The positive is that we do have a functioning market. Homes are selling, just at a slower pace, with days on market extended and buyers taking a more considered approach.
Wellington has taken a few knocks lately even being labelled one of the worst places to live in New Zealand. Whether that’s fair or not is up for debate, but markets do move in cycles. And when sentiment is this low, it’s often a sign we’re closer to the bottom than the top.
From here, it becomes a story of gradual improvement. As confidence returns, so too will momentum.
For now, it remains a market that rewards realism, patience and good decision-making.
Have a lovely Easter.
Wellington Market Quick Stats
What’s on in Welly?
Bic Runga & The NZSO – 2 April
More than 60 classical musicians will collaborate with Bic Runga and her band for a special concert in Wellington. Bic Runga & the NZSO is a concert of songs from Bic’s much-anticipated new album ‘Red Sunset’. The performance will also feature a selection of hits and best-loved songs spanning the artist’s extraordinary 31-year career.
ULTRA New Zealand – 10 April
It’s entertained fans across six continents. Now, for the first time, ULTRA Music Festival is coming to New Zealand. Arguably one of the most recognisable brands in electronic dance music, ULTRA is coming to Wellington for an exclusive stop-off. Known for delivering an epic combination of electronic music talent and impressive stage productions, the festival will take place along the capital’s picturesque waterfront on Friday, 10 April 2026.
One New Zealand Warriors v Dolphins ANZAC match – 25 April
Make your ANZAC long weekend a winner by cheering on the One New Zealand Warriors at Hnry Stadium. Aotearoa’s favourite NRL team is heading south to give fans outside of Auckland the opportunity to see them play.
Meet Ben Stevens & the Team
If you, or anyone you know, could benefit from a considered market assessment by Wellington’s only licensed agent and registered property valuer, please do not hesitate to call. We are always happy to help.
