The start of a new year always brings a sense of optimism. A fresh page, a chance to reset, and the comforting idea that last year’s bad habits can stay exactly where they belong, last year.
If you’re a regular gym-goer, January is chaos. Classes book out, new year’s resolutions are everywhere, and suddenly it’s harder to get a spot in the class than Taylor Swift tickets. For gyms, January must feel like Christmas does for retailers. In real estate, we do something similar at the start of each year, dust off the crystal ball and take a look at what might be ahead. So, here’s my best guesses for this year
House Prices
Let’s not bury the lead story, this is the one everyone wants to talk about.
The latest data suggests we should start to see a small lift in house prices through the second half of 2025, with a little more momentum building over the coming months. Auckland is expected to lead the way, with Wellington tracking at around 5% growth over the next 12 months.
It won’t be dramatic, and its unlikely to be double-digit growth, but after a tough four years, it’s a move in the right direction. While homeowners would love a surge, slow and steady growth is ultimately far healthier for the market.
Interest Rates
We’re starting to see new pricing coming through from suppliers, and costs continue to edge up. I’m not convinced the inflation dragon has been fully tamed just yet. With business confidence slowly returning, there’s a real possibility we see upward pressure on the OCR sooner rather than later, potentially as early as mid-year.
The big wildcard remains global politics. As the northern hemisphere heads into summer, ongoing geopolitical tensions mean there’s always the risk of a sudden flare-up that unsettles markets. I mentioned at the start of 2025 that the unpredictability of a Trump presidency would be a factor and that uncertainty is continuing into 2026.
Election Year
Election years are always the year of promises and those promises usually come with big chequebooks.
Wellington has had a tough ride since the last election, but there are signs of improvement. The redundancy fears have eased, job vacancies are increasing, and historically, the capital remains one of the best places in the country for secure, well-paid employment.
Having worked in Real Estate through the past nine election cycles, one thing is consistent: the Wellington property market tends to pause in the weeks leading up to election day as buyers and sellers take a “wait and see” approach. Once the result is known, activity typically returns to normal almost immediately.
As always, the economy will largely dictate the outcome, growth in early 2026 will favour the centre-right, stagnation will swing the pendulum back the other way.
Construction
Anyone in the construction industry will tell you it’s been a tough few years. Many firms have folded, while others are hanging on by a thread. The challenge is that costs haven’t really come down, they’ve simply stopped rising as quickly.
As homeowners start to feel more secure this year, and confidence in the economy and house prices slowly return, we’re likely to see more people investing back into their homes. This is likely to start with smaller projects like kitchens and bathrooms.
The Wellington Market
The year has kicked off with a noticeable surge in new listings. Over the past few weeks, stock levels have risen sharply, and it looks likely Wellington will soon pass the 1,000 properties available mark.
For buyers, that means choice and plenty of it. For sellers, it’s a timely reminder that preparation and strategy matter more than ever. Homes that are well presented, well priced, and thoughtfully marketed will stand out and sell well. Those that aren’t risk getting lost in the crowd.
Here’s to a positive year ahead for both buyers and sellers.
Wellington Market Quick Stats
What’s on in Welly?
Jim Jefferies – Son of a Carpenter – 6 February
He never fails to light up a crowd with his provocative and biting observations. Australian actor and comic Jim Jefferies is heading to Wellington. His new show, Son of a Carpenter, is further proof that he is one of the most electrifying comedy stars on the scene.
Te Rā o Waitangi – 6 February
Te Rā o Waitangi is a free, whānau-friendly event to commemorate the signing of Te Tiriti o Waitangi and Aotearoa New Zealand’s national day. Kicking off at midday in Waitangi Park, you’ll find the main stage programme packed with local talent. Enjoy live music, dance, and cultural performances. Dotted around Waitangi Park, you’ll also find a selection of delicious kai, stalls, a Kids’ Zone, a treaty education space, and much more.
Wellington Phoenix vs Auckland FC – 21 February
The beautiful game is back in Wellington, and you won’t want to miss a moment of the action. Since rising from the ashes of the New Zealand Knights in 2007, the Wellington Phoenix has become a must-watch sport in Te Whanganui-a-Tara. Now, both the men’s and women’s teams are ready to ignite the 2025/26 A-League season, bringing world-class football to the capital.
Meet Ben Stevens & the Team
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